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Is Your Money At Risk?

Speculation begins where certainty ends


Many financial glossaries define investment as an honest seeking of return while speculation is defined as a dangerous gamble. 

They are wrong. Investment, speculation, or doing nothing; all financial strategies contain considerable risk.

Financial professionals are paid to take risks and remove worry. Consider however that no one cares more about increasing and preserving your money than you. To misquote Ben Franklin's famous phrase on liberty - He that gives up control of his money to gain safety will lose both money and safety .

We all understand that human fallibility can not be eliminated by decisive words. Yet listen closely to financial advise and you will hear most investment advisors handle uncertainty by sounding certain. Professionally managed long term investment has great risk (pdf by Mandelbrot and Taleb) precisely because it sounds honest, rational, and above all, safe.

Our definition of speculation: following a system of reasoning trying to discover opportunity (an edge) from within inconclusive evidence -- acting upon that reasoning - and then reacting to fresh information when required.

Are you worried about your investments?

If you are not worried -- your money is already in danger.

Worry is respect for risks that threaten your future. Don't try to hide from unavoidable risks, instead embrace and manage risk. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.

Most investments seem safe, but undisclosed and hidden risks are stealing your money. You need to understand your own ventures, Don't depend on even well meaning advice from a third party.

You need to speculate, not just invest.

following speculation rules requires that you research and take risks. Information presented on this site is about personally managing your risk rather than trying to avoid risks.

A known risk in the options markets, futures exchanges, or in forex can be safer if you cut your losses sooner. You can then let profits run - and overpower many small losses.

"Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer." Your knowing many of the risks helps you prepare for them.

These pages of speculation rules are built on the premise that life itself is filled with risk. Any effort to fully escape risk only exposes you to new and hidden dangers. It is better and safer to embrace risk and try to closely control its effects.

Your speculation rules appetizers are:


  • if you are not worried - you are in danger
  • keep your losses small
  • let your profits run.
  • learn to invest for yourself - speculate


Also consider a primary Speculation Rule:    

No investment advisor cares more about your wealth than you - unless they plan on using or stealing your money.

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our version of the standard disclaimers:

You are responsible for your own decisions. Your results will be dependent on factors that will never be fully known or understood. These articles were not written by an investment advisor - but by speculators with decades of failures and successes behind them -- and ahead of them. These are their speculation rules. Your investment results will not be equal to their investment results or the investment results of anyone else. The future is hidden, "ya puts up yer money an' ya takes yer chances." Since life is risk - consider these special speculation rules as encouragement to take control of your own finances - manage life's very real investment risks yourself - no one cares more about your money than you.



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