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Two Steps Forward - One Step Back

Is Hari Seldon's psycho-history based on Elliott Waves?


The old saw two steps forward - one step back is perhaps more accurate than we knew. The reality may be three waves forward - two waves back.

Have you read Isaac Asimov's Hugo Award winning Foundation book series? The fascinating premise is that mathematician Hari Seldon theorizes a way to anticipate the future based on the actions of very large groups of people.

A similar investment focused Elliott wave theory began with the market letters of RN Elliott written from 1938-1946. The Elliott wave concept now covers much more than investment markets and economics; it postulates fractal patterns underlying all large scale social interactions.

Elliot Wave Theory is not mythology, a folksy proverb, or a general motivational guideline. Elliott Wave has even become the basis of a social science hypotheses. Socionomics is the formal name used for broad applications of Elliott wave analysis.

Study of economic implications are usually addressed under the Elliott Wave Theory moniker. When researchers are searching for deeper and broader indicators they utilize the more formal socionomics label.

Perhaps the most interesting proposition put forth by Elliott Wave Theory is that social mood determines reactions to events as opposed to the accepted view that current events shape social mood. The greatest opposition to Elliott Wave Theory comes from efficient market proponents that believe all prices of a free and open market are correct because they reflect the full knowledge of rational participants.

Do graphs of very large social interactions (ie: stock markets, national homicide rates) display fractal wave patterns that can have value in forecasting? To help you decide, you can watch an entertaining documentary about socionomics. This informative movie was directed by award-winning filmmaker David Moore.

In less than an hour you will discover both the research and useful applications of this social forecasting tool. The film also makes it easy to see and understand basic Elliott Wave concepts.

Watch History's Hidden Engine - watch it online now - for free!

After viewing this documentary, you may find the information presented is useful (and potentially profitable) in many contexts.

The insight History's Hidden Engine offers into the nascent science of socionomics is provocative and challenging. The online streaming video itself is well worth your time. At the very least you will be exposed to some wonderful thought inducing ideas.

History's Hidden Engine is an in depth documentary about social patterns, yet it is enjoyable for us laymen.

Socionomics may be a pseudo-science or you may be witnessing, and perhaps participating in, the birth of a new science. It is still early in the game - we just don't know yet - I'll consider it a protoscience, for now.

For myself, the Elliott system trading wave has been applicable to financial speculation - it is a model I utilize. Elliott Wave allows speculative entrance points with tight stop losses. If my analysis is proved to be in error this helps me keep losses small. Of course you could maintain I might have chosen any entry point, used loss limiting rules, and had similar success.

In Hari Seldon's universe we may be at the very birth of understanding Psycho-History. Watch the video - but don't make up your mind yet.

The field of Socionomics will be expanding. Now is a great time to start to understand the principle: Three Steps Forward - Two Steps Back. To start learning:


* take a free Elliott Wave tutorial

* download a free Elliott Wave pdf - The Independent Investor e-book


This theory is worth investigating -

join in the mental adventure.


Introduction to these pages of Financial Philosophy

Asset Classes & Change

two steps forward, one step back

Elliott Wave books, videos, & free tutorials

Speculation Santa Clause

True Wealth

preserving your wealth

Money Management

Financial Speculation

Insights into Economics

Government, taxes, & life

Estate Planning & Planned Giving

how to raise money for charity

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