Two Steps Forward - One Step Back
Is Hari Seldon's psycho-history based
on Elliott Waves?
The old saw two steps
forward - one step back is perhaps more
accurate than we knew. The
reality may be three
waves forward - two waves back.
Have
you read Isaac Asimov's Hugo
Award winning Foundation book
series? The fascinating premise is that mathematician
Hari Seldon theorizes a way to anticipate
the future based on the actions of very large groups
of people.
A similar investment
focused Elliott wave theory began
with the market letters of RN Elliott written from
1938-1946. The Elliott wave concept now covers much
more than investment markets and economics; it postulates
fractal patterns underlying all large scale social
interactions.
Elliot Wave Theory is
not mythology, a folksy proverb, or a general
motivational guideline. Elliott Wave has even become
the basis of a social science hypotheses. Socionomics
is the formal name used for broad applications of
Elliott wave analysis.
Study of economic
implications are usually addressed under the Elliott
Wave Theory moniker. When researchers
are searching for deeper and broader indicators
they utilize the more formal socionomics label.
Perhaps
the most interesting proposition put forth by Elliott
Wave Theory is that social mood determines reactions
to events as opposed to the accepted view
that current events shape social mood. The greatest
opposition to Elliott Wave Theory comes from efficient
market proponents that believe all prices of a free
and open market are correct because they reflect the
full knowledge of rational participants.
Do graphs
of very large social interactions (ie: stock markets,
national homicide rates) display fractal wave patterns
that can have value in forecasting? To
help you decide, you can watch an
entertaining documentary about socionomics. This
informative movie was directed by award-winning filmmaker
David Moore.
In less than an
hour you will discover both the research and useful
applications of this social forecasting tool.
The film also makes it easy to see and understand
basic Elliott Wave concepts.
Watch History's
Hidden Engine - watch
it online now - for free!
After viewing this documentary,
you may find the information presented is useful (and
potentially profitable) in many contexts.
The insight History's
Hidden Engine offers into the nascent science
of socionomics is provocative and challenging. The
online streaming video itself is well worth your
time. At the very least you will be exposed to
some wonderful thought inducing ideas.
History's Hidden Engine
is an in depth documentary about social patterns, yet
it is enjoyable for us laymen.
Socionomics may be a
pseudo-science or you may be witnessing, and perhaps
participating in, the birth of a new science. It
is still early in the game - we just don't know
yet - I'll consider it a protoscience,
for now.
For myself,
the Elliott system trading wave has been applicable
to financial speculation - it is a model I utilize.
Elliott Wave allows speculative entrance points with
tight stop losses. If my analysis is proved to be
in error this helps me keep losses small. Of
course you could maintain I might have chosen any entry
point, used loss limiting rules, and had similar
success.
In Hari Seldon's universe
we may be at the very birth of understanding Psycho-History. Watch
the video - but
don't make up your mind yet.
The field of Socionomics
will be expanding. Now is a great time to start
to understand the principle: Three Steps Forward
- Two Steps Back. To
start learning:
.
